LedgerWhy the market is mispricing the margin recovery in ████ — and what the 10-K footnotes actually say
The consensus model assumes a 340bps margin recovery through FY26, but the footnotes in the most recent 10-K tell a structurally different story. Three items that almost nobody in the coverage universe has flagged: 1. The ████ segment reclassification quietly shifted $42M of fixed costs into COGS rather than SG&A — a change that flatters the operating leverage narrative on the surface but obscures the true incremental margin. 2. Management's "normalized" EBITDA excludes stock-based compensation running at 11% of revenue — a number that has grown every quarter for eight straight quarters...
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Member since Mar 2023
Member spotlight
I found my co-founder for our RIA through a Ledger thread about ROIC misallocation in mid-cap industrials. The depth here doesn't exist anywhere else online.
Marcus Trevino
Buy-Side Equity Analyst
Frontier Asset Management, Austin TX — covering industrials
Shared with permission. Name and firm disclosed voluntarily.
11 mo
transition timeline
From regional bank to independent RIA in 11 months
A thread on fee compression in wealth management sparked a conversation that turned into a business plan. Three members from that thread now serve as advisors to the new firm.
14
members contributed
Ledger thesis cited in Barron's coverage of ████████ sector
A collaborative model built across 14 members over six weeks surfaced a structural mispricing that was later confirmed by the company's own guidance revision.
+31%
vs sector benchmark
Short thesis developed in Ledger outperformed sector by 31%
Pressure-testing the bear case through peer pushback sharpened the position sizing and exit criteria. The outcome: a well-documented, conviction-driven short that worked.
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CFA Charterholder
Member since Jan 2024
Member spotlight
Ledger is the only place I can post a half-finished model and get three people who actually understand the capital structure to tear it apart before I take it to the IC.
Priya Nair
Credit Analyst → Portfolio Manager
Formerly Goldman Sachs; now managing $220M at Ridgeline Capital
Shared with permission. Name and firm disclosed voluntarily.
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